Proficiency projections estimate the probability of reaching Meets proficiency on the state test from fall, winter, or spring RIT scores¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2024: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Using conditional growth norms and the standard normal cumulative distribution function, the methodology yields grade- and percentile-specific probabilities of achieving Meets proficiency, e.g., a Grade 3 student with a fall RIT of 202 has a 97% chance of reaching Meets or higher. → Ann Hu 2021

Evidence¶

Ann Hu 2021¶

Ann Hu, NWEA Psychometric Solutions. (2021). MAP Growth Linking Studies: Intended Uses, Methodology, and Recent Studies. NWEA. https://www.nwea.org/resource/type/linking-studies/

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Proficiency projection analysis (Table 3.4) from the Minnesota MCA-III Mathematics linking study, computing probabilities via the standard normal cumulative distribution function using expected growth and the conditional standard deviation of growth. The article prints that a fall RIT of 202 carries "a 97% chance of reaching Meets proficiency or higher."

"For example, a Grade 3 student who obtained a MAP Growth Mathematics score of 202 in the fall has a 97% chance of reaching Meets proficiency or higher on the MCA-III test."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• The published norms allow normative interpretation of both status and fall-to-spring growth, e.g., an Algebra 1 student at the 55th fall percentile has an expected gain of 8 RIT with growth SD of 9, and an 11-RIT gain places the student at the 62nd growth percentile. — related
• Norm shifts can raise achievement percentiles for schools serving struggling students even when RIT gains and projected proficiency do not improve — related
• MAP Growth RIT scores correlate strongly (r = 0.92–0.93) with state summative mathematics scores in the Minnesota MCA-III linking study — related
• The conditional growth index serves as a descriptive indicator of student learning progress — related
• MAP Growth spring RIT cut scores classify students as proficient or not proficient on the MCA-III Mathematics test with 0.87–0.90 overall accuracy — related
• Linking studies predict proficiency on state summative assessments from MAP Growth scores — a broader claim this one bears on