Graphing the Student Momentum Indicator across lessons yields nine dropout-behavior shape categories, with steep wall shapes the most common (25.5%) and flat slope shapes rare (2.6%)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · design r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2019: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Constant comparison of M graphs from 196 courses produced nine categories: steep wall, back-to-back wall, steady slope, convex slope, three wall, early and late wall, flat slope, spanning wall, and other shapes. → Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman 2016 q2 i? Steep wall shape was the most frequent category (50 courses, 25.5%) and flat slope shape among the rarest (5 courses, 2.6%). → Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman 2016 (2)

Evidence¶

Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman 2016¶

Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman. (2016). Dropout Rates, Student Momentum, and Course Walls: A New Tool for Distance Education Designers. Journal of Educators Online. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1150708 doi:10.9743/jeo.2017.14.2.7

q2 · i? · qualitative · r2

Qualitative constant-comparison analysis in which each course's M graph was treated as a case and compared with all other cases. The authors report "nine categories of M graph shapes" derived inductively from the 196 course graphs.

"We found nine categories of M graph shapes using the constant comparative method. Our categorization of graph shapes seen in 196 courses are as follows:"

Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman 2016 (2)¶

Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman. (2016). Dropout Rates, Student Momentum, and Course Walls: A New Tool for Distance Education Designers. Journal of Educators Online. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1150708

q2 · i? · design · r2

Frequency analysis across the 196 courses (Table 3) shows the steep wall shape at 25.5% (50 courses), back-to-back at 16.3%, steady slope at 14.3%, convex slope at 12.8%, three wall at 12.2%, early and late wall at 11.7%, other at 3.6%, flat slope at 2.6%, and spanning wall at 1.0%.

"Approximately 25.5% of the courses in this study had a steep Course Wall between subsequent lessons."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Student Momentum graph shapes differ markedly by subject area, with math courses predominantly convex slope and political science courses predominantly steep wall — related
• A single Tipping Point explains dropout patterns in only about a quarter of online courses, so lesson-level dropout behavior is more complex than one critical lesson — related
• Agent-generated descriptions significantly improve prediction of student dropout in a lesson, outperforming all other measured approaches — related