A single Tipping Point explains dropout patterns in only about a quarter of online courses, so lesson-level dropout behavior is more complex than one critical lesson¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr1·q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Only 50 of 196 courses (25.5%) had a Tipping Point, leading the authors to abandon the single-Tipping-Point hypothesis in favor of a multi-shape account. → Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman 2016
Evidence¶
Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman 2016¶
Steven S. Christensen & Jonathan S. Spackman. (2016). Dropout Rates, Student Momentum, and Course Walls: A New Tool for Distance Education Designers. Journal of Educators Online. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1150708 doi:10.9743/jeo.2017.14.2.7
q2 · i? · associational · r1
Observational analysis of two years of dropout data from 196 university-level online courses. The authors defined the Tipping Point as the lesson after which over 50% of total dropouts occurred, and report that "50 courses, or 25.5% of courses, had Tipping Points", so the hypothesis was rejected.
"As a result, we found 50 courses, or 25.5% of courses, had Tipping Points, indicating that our initial Tipping Point hypothesis failed to adequately explain the data."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
-
For college students who can choose between online and in-person sections, taking a course online lowers grades both in that course and in future courses — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
-
A review of music education asserts that MOOC completion is typically under 10% and that embodied musical learning resists short video lectures and self-graded quizzes — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
- Student Momentum graph shapes differ markedly by subject area, with math courses predominantly convex slope and political science courses predominantly steep wall — related
- Graphing the Student Momentum Indicator across lessons yields nine dropout-behavior shape categories, with steep wall shapes the most common (25.5%) and flat slope shapes rare (2.6%) — related
- Online continuing education courses show lower persistence than comparable onground courses (79% vs 84%) over eight quarters — related
- Research finds concentrated poverty harms achievement, with a tipping point around 50-60% school poverty after which achievement declines dramatically — related
- MOOCs failed to deliver on their proponents' promises of transforming higher education — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
tipping-point-hypothesis-insufficient-online-dropout |
title |
A single Tipping Point explains dropout patterns in only about a quarter of online courses, so lesson-level dropout behavior is more complex than one critical lesson |
description |
A single Tipping Point explains dropout patterns in only about a quarter of online courses, so lesson-level dropout behavior is more complex than one critical lesson |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2016 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-09-27 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — steven-s-christensen-jonathan-s-spackman-2016 |
Frontmatter is the page's machine-readable record — see the Schema & Guide.