The COVID-19 pandemic had small but statistically significant negative average effects on Dutch students' track recommendation (-0.068 levels) and seventh-grade track enrollment (-0.039 levels)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Average estimated pandemic effects were -0.068 levels for track recommendation and -0.039 levels for seventh-grade track enrollment, small but statistically significant. → van de Werfhorst 2024

Evidence¶

van de Werfhorst 2024¶

van de Werfhorst, H. G., Zwier, D., Geven, S., Bol, T. & Haelermans, C. (2024). Inequality in pandemic effects on school track placement and the role of social and academic embeddedness. npj Science of Learning 9:71. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-024-00283-1

q3 · i? · causal · r2

Counterfactual cohort comparison using Dutch register data (~27% of each cohort, N=46,893 control and N=50,313 treatment in 2018/2019), matching pandemic-cohort students to pre-pandemic peers on prior test scores, school performance, SES, and gender. The study reports effects that are "small but statistically significant effects".

"The average pandemic effect is -0.068 levels for track recommendation, -0.039 levels for seventh-g rade track enrollment, and +0.011 levels for ninth-grade track level. These are small but statistically significant effects."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Limited socioeconomic heterogeneity in the embeddedness–pandemic-effect association: multigroup model fits better but point estimates are largely consistent across SES groups — related
• The pandemic had a slight positive average effect (+0.011 levels) on ninth-grade track level, unlike the negative effects on earlier outcomes — related
• The pandemic's adverse effects on track recommendation and seventh-grade enrollment were largest for socioeconomically disadvantaged students, enlarging existing inequalities — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Socio-economic inequality in learning increased during the pandemic for most estimates, across subjects, grades and pandemic stages — related
• Students in The Netherlands lost on average 3.16 percentile points (0.08 SD) in achievement during the 8-week COVID-19 lockdown — related
• COVID-19 widened the socio-economic performance gap on average, deteriorating more among disadvantaged students, significantly in mathematics and science — related