Five persistence definition variants show similar predictiveness of completion, but the third-semester point-in-time definition yields persistence rates up to 14 percentage points higher than the continuous four-term definition¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (3 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Among bachelor's degree enrollees, 76% of 2019 graduates were enrolled in the third semester while 66% remained continuously enrolled through semester four, a 10 percentage point difference. → Mahaffie 2024 q2 i? Among community college enrollees, 52% were enrolled at the third semester versus 38% continuously enrolled through semester four, a 14 percentage point difference. → Mahaffie 2024 (2) q2 i? All five persistence definitions showed relatively similar levels of predictiveness of four-year and six-year completion and similar trends over time. → Mahaffie 2024 (3)

Evidence¶

Mahaffie 2024¶

Mahaffie, S., Nagaoka, J., & Usher, A. (2024). Measuring Patterns of Immediate and Continued College Enrollment among CPS Graduates. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/measuring-patterns-of-immediate-and-continued-college-enrollment-among-CPSs-graduates

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Comparison (Figure 6) of persistence rates among CPS graduates enrolled in bachelor's degree granting institutions under the existing continuous four-term definition and the proposed third-semester enrollment definition, showing a 10 percentage point difference for the 2019 cohort.

"76% of 2019 bachelor’s degree enrollees were still enrolled in college in the third semester, while 66% remained continuously enrolled through semester four."

Mahaffie 2024 (2)¶

Mahaffie, S., Nagaoka, J., & Usher, A. (2024). Measuring Patterns of Immediate and Continued College Enrollment among CPS Graduates. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/measuring-patterns-of-immediate-and-continued-college-enrollment-among-CPSs-graduates

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Comparison (Figure 9) of persistence rates among CPS graduates enrolled in community colleges under the third-semester and continuous four-term definitions, showing a larger definitional gap than for bachelor's degree enrollees.

"52% of community college enrollees enrolled in college at the third semester and only 38% remaining continuously enrolled through semester four (a difference of 14 percentage points; see Figure 9)."

Mahaffie 2024 (3)¶

Mahaffie, S., Nagaoka, J., & Usher, A. (2024). Measuring Patterns of Immediate and Continued College Enrollment among CPS Graduates. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/measuring-patterns-of-immediate-and-continued-college-enrollment-among-CPSs-graduates

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Comparative analysis of five persistence definition variants (Table 1) for CPS graduates, assessing predictiveness of four-year and six-year completion. The definitions showed "relatively similar levels of predictiveness", so the definition choice rested on timeliness, clarity, and alignment rather than predictive advantage.

"All five definitions resulted in indicators with relatively similar levels of predictiveness of four -year and six-year completion for bachelor’s degree granting institution enrollees, and rates calculated using all five definitions showed similar trends over time."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Each additional semester of continuous college enrollment is associated with a higher completion rate, but no specific semesters carry distinctive predictive value — related
• Students meeting the continuous four-term persistence definition completed college at higher rates than students meeting the third-semester definition, for both bachelor's and community college enrollees — related
• College persistence was similar among College Track completers and similar students who enrolled in college, despite College Track's stricter persistence definition — related