PISA mathematics scores declined by an average of 12 points (14.2% of a standard deviation, about 7 months of learning) after COVID-19 school closures¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Across around 70 countries, mathematics achievement in 2022 fell below the pre-pandemic linear trend by 12 PISA points, equal to 14.2% of a SD and more than 7 months of learning. → Maciej Jakubowski 2025

Evidence¶

Maciej Jakubowski 2025¶

Maciej Jakubowski, Tomasz Gajderowicz & Harry Anthony Patrinos. (2025). COVID-19, school closures, and student learning outcomes. New global evidence from PISA. npj Science of Learning. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-025-00297-3

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Regression analysis of all comparable PISA rounds for 72 countries modeling the 2022 departure from country-specific linear trends, with country fixed effects and student and country-average controls. The article reports "the decline in achievement is equal to 14.2% of a SD", roughly 7 months of learning at ~20 points per year.

"The overall decline in mathematics associated with pandemic-era school closures is 12 points. In 2022, the average within-country SD of mathematics is 86.2. Thus, the decline in achievement is equal to 14.2% of a SD."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Students in The Netherlands lost on average 3.16 percentile points (0.08 SD) in achievement during the 8-week COVID-19 lockdown — related
• Covid-19 school closures depressed student achievement on average by about 0.19 standard deviations — a broader claim this one bears on
• In countries with the longest closures, losses were concentrated among average and lowest-achieving students, while the best achievers lost 8–9 points everywhere — related
• Average fall 2021 math scores in Grades 3–8 were .20–.27 SD lower than same-grade peers' fall 2019 scores — related
• The pandemic strengthened the link between socioeconomic status and mathematics scores, but only in countries with closures shorter than 22 weeks — related
• COVID-19-related school closures in spring 2020 had a negative overall effect on student achievement (median −0.08 SD across eleven studies) — a broader claim this one bears on
• Each week of full school closure is associated with an additional 0.44-point decline in mathematics achievement — related
• The COVID-19 switch to remote schooling was accompanied by significant declines in math and science scores on a UAE digital learning platform — related