In countries with the longest closures, losses were concentrated among average and lowest-achieving students, while the best achievers lost 8–9 points everywhere¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Losses for the lowest achievers ranged from 8 points in shortest-closure countries to 33 points in longest-closure countries; top students lost around 8–9 points in all countries. → Maciej Jakubowski 2025

Evidence¶

Maciej Jakubowski 2025¶

Maciej Jakubowski, Tomasz Gajderowicz & Harry Anthony Patrinos. (2025). COVID-19, school closures, and student learning outcomes. New global evidence from PISA. npj Science of Learning. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-025-00297-3

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Unconditional quantile (RIF) regressions fitted at different PISA score percentiles (Supplementary Fig. 1). For the average student the loss rises "from around 14 points in the countries with the shortest closures but increases to 24 in countries with the most prolonged closures".

"For countries with more prolonged closures, the declines are more significant among the lowest-achieving students, while in all countries, the best-achieving students lost around 8 -9 points."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Time and Continuity — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Learning losses increase with the length of school closures, from 9–12% SD in shortest-closure countries to 17–23% SD in longest-closure countries — related
• PISA mathematics scores declined by an average of 12 points (14.2% of a standard deviation, about 7 months of learning) after COVID-19 school closures — related
• Learning losses were 40% larger than average among students in the two lowest parental-education categories — related
• Children from low-SES families were more negatively affected by COVID-19 school closures than children from high-SES families — related