Predictive specificity was substantially higher for NSLP-eligible, English learner, disabled, and older-entry students, with the largest difference for middle school students with disabilities predicting college enrollment¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2022 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2025: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The middle school model correctly predicted 95 percent of cases in which students with disabilities would not enroll in college compared with 51 percent for students without disabilities, a 44 percentage point difference. → Hester 2022

Evidence¶

Hester 2022¶

Hester, C., Lazarev, V., Zacamy, J., Nardi, C., & Feygin, A. (2022). Student group differences in Arkansas' indicators of postsecondary readiness and success. Regional Educational Laboratory Southwest. https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs/regions/southwest/rel_2023-145.asp

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Logistic regression analysis of predictive specificity by student group. The authors report the model "correctly predicted 95 percent of the cases in which students with disabilities would not enroll in college compared with just 51 percent" for students without disabilities, a 44 percentage point difference.

"The middle school model correctly predicted 95 percent of the cases in which students with disabilities would not enroll in college compared with just 51 percent of the cases in which students without disabilities would not enroll in college, a 44 percentage point difference."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Learning Disabilities and Developmental Differences — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Students with disabilities attained postsecondary readiness and success outcomes at about one half to one third the rate of students without disabilities, the largest difference between any student group and its counterpart — related
• Never being expelled in high school was a substantially stronger predictor of college enrollment for Hispanic, English learner, older-entry, and town/rural students than for their counterparts — related
• Predictive accuracy of middle and high school indicators did not vary substantially between student groups — reports the opposite
• Fewer substantial differences between student groups occurred for behavioral indicators than for academic indicators of postsecondary readiness and success — related