Predictive accuracy of middle and high school indicators did not vary substantially between student groups¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2022 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2025: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Middle and high school indicators predicted postsecondary readiness, college enrollment, and college persistence with overall accuracy that did not vary substantially between students with different characteristics. → Hester 2022

Evidence¶

Hester 2022¶

Hester, C., Lazarev, V., Zacamy, J., Nardi, C., & Feygin, A. (2022). Student group differences in Arkansas' indicators of postsecondary readiness and success. Regional Educational Laboratory Southwest. https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs/regions/southwest/rel_2023-145.asp

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Logistic regression analysis of predictive accuracy across student groups for the statewide cohorts. The authors report that indicators "predicted postsecondary readiness, college enrollment, and college persistence with an overall accuracy that did not vary substantially between students with different characteristics."

"Middle and high school indicators of postsecondary readiness and success predicted postsecondary readiness , college enrollment, and college persistence with an overall accuracy that did not vary substantially between students with different characteristics (see table B2 in appendix B)."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Learning Disabilities and Developmental Differences — moderator: an instructional effect differs with it
• English-Learner Status — moderator: an instructional effect differs with it

Related Claims¶

• Students with disabilities attained postsecondary readiness and success outcomes at about one half to one third the rate of students without disabilities, the largest difference between any student group and its counterpart — related
• Predictive specificity was substantially higher for NSLP-eligible, English learner, disabled, and older-entry students, with the largest difference for middle school students with disabilities predicting college enrollment — reports the opposite
• Almost all middle and high school academic indicators demonstrated similar predictive strength across student groups, with exceptions for science and English language arts proficiency in middle school and science proficiency and community service learning enrollment in high school — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Never being expelled in high school was a substantially stronger predictor of college enrollment for Hispanic, English learner, older-entry, and town/rural students than for their counterparts — reports the opposite
• The study also examines persistence in college over the first two postsecondary years — related
• Raw postsecondary data are useful for descriptive purposes but may not give educators substantial new information beyond high school indicators — related
• Student-level and school-level demographic characteristics significantly predict middle school academic trajectories toward college readiness — related
• SES–learning effect sizes did not differ by SES indicator or outcome type in an umbrella review's meta-regressions; differences by grade level and study year rested on one or two effect sizes — related
• Substantial differences in attaining academic indicators of postsecondary readiness occurred for most student groups, with the largest number between Black and White students, NSLP-eligible and ineligible students, and students entering grade 6 after age 13 — reports the opposite
• Fewer substantial differences between student groups occurred for behavioral indicators than for academic indicators of postsecondary readiness and success — related