Predictor variables beyond prior achievement and school track add predictive value for next-year math achievement, with the smallest added effects for the final-year outcome¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr3·q3
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
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q3 i? Comparing the full model against prior-achievement and school-track baselines showed the other predictor variables collectively added predictive value, and these additional effects appeared smallest for predicting the final year outcome. → Lavelle-Hill 2024
Evidence¶
Lavelle-Hill 2024¶
Lavelle-Hill, R., Frenzel, A. C., Goetz, T., Lichtenfeld, S., Marsh, H. W., Pekrun, R., Sakaki, M., Smith, G., & Murayama, K. (2024). How the Predictors of Math Achievement Change Over Time: A Longitudinal Machine Learning Approach. Journal of Educational Psychology, 116(8), 1383–1403. https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0000863
q3 · i? · associational · r3
Results of the next-year prediction analysis comparing the full machine learning model to two ordinary linear regression baselines (prior achievement only; prior achievement plus school track) shown in Figure 3A. The authors report the other predictors "seem to have added predictive value", smallest at the final year.
"School track has some added prediction power (blue bar in Figure 3A). Importantly, the other predictor variables also seem to have added predictive value. These additional effects appear to be the smallest in the model predicting the final year outcome."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- A machine learning model using 105 predictors predicts next-year standardized math achievement with out-of-sample prediction R-squared of .70–.78 — related
- Beyond prior achievement, predictor groups (IQ, grades, motivation and emotion, cognitive strategies, classroom/home environments, demographics) show smaller yet consistent contributions to predicting math achievement over time — a broader claim this one bears on
- Scaffolding level provides no consistent additional predictive information about subsequent exam performance beyond prior achievement and observed dialogue behavior — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
predictors-beyond-prior-achievement-add-predictive-value |
title |
Predictor variables beyond prior achievement and school track add predictive value for next-year math achievement, with the smallest added effects for the final-year outcome |
description |
Predictor variables beyond prior achievement and school track add predictive value for next-year math achievement, with the smallest added effects for the final-year outcome |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2024 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-25 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — lavelle-hill-2024 |
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