Beyond prior achievement, predictor groups (IQ, grades, motivation and emotion, cognitive strategies, classroom/home environments, demographics) show smaller yet consistent contributions to predicting math achievement over time¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In both the next-year and varying-lag analyses, additional predictor groups exhibited relatively smaller yet consistent contributions alongside the dominant prior math achievement. → Lavelle-Hill 2024

Evidence¶

Lavelle-Hill 2024¶

Lavelle-Hill, R., Frenzel, A. C., Goetz, T., Lichtenfeld, S., Marsh, H. W., Pekrun, R., Sakaki, M., Smith, G., & Murayama, K. (2024). How the Predictors of Math Achievement Change Over Time: A Longitudinal Machine Learning Approach. Journal of Educational Psychology, 116(8), 1383–1403. https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0000863

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Summary finding stated in the article's abstract for the two PALMA machine learning analyses (next-year and varying-lag prediction). The abstract reports that these predictor groups showed "relatively smaller yet consistent contributions" relative to prior achievement; no effect sizes are printed in the available text for this summary.

"In both analyses, additional predictors, including intelligence quotient, grades, motivation and emotion, cognitive strategies, classroom/home environments, and demographics (including socioeconomic status), exhibited relatively smaller yet consistent contributions, underscoring their distinct roles in predicting math achievement over time."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Home Learning Environment — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Kindergarten visual processing uniquely predicts grade-one early mathematics after controlling for prior mathematics and general cognitive abilities — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Executive function measures predict early mathematics achievement over and above reading ability and IQ — related
• The set of executive-function and intelligence predictors of academic achievement differs across Grades 2, 4, and 6, with EF contributions appearing cumulative as students get older — related
• Teacher expectation bias predicted Dutch secondary students' performance up to five years later, after controls for prior achievement, IQ and motivation, in one large correlational cohort study — related
• Predictor variables beyond prior achievement and school track add predictive value for next-year math achievement, with the smallest added effects for the final-year outcome — a narrower finding that bears on this claim