Current progress monitoring screeners have low positive predictive value for learning disability risk even at high effectiveness (PPV 34.5%, NPV 96.1% at r = 0.70)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? At the tenth-percentile learning disability cutoff, progress monitoring at its most effective (r = 0.70) yields a positive predictive value of 34.5% and a negative predictive value of 96.1%. → Shero 2021

Evidence¶

Shero 2021¶

Shero, J., van Dijk, W., Edwards, A., Schatschneider, C., Solari, E. J., & Hart, S. A. (2021). The practical utility of genetic screening in school settings. npj Science of Learning, 6:12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-021-00090-y

q2 · i? · theoretical · r2

Density-function simulation of screening accuracy (Results, Research question 2; Table 2) computing PPV and NPV from cumulative distribution functions for progress monitoring alone at three effectiveness levels (r = 0.40, 0.55, 0.70) as the baseline for judging PGS's incremental value.

"when progress monitoring is highly effective ( r = 0.70) 34.5% of students who were identi fied as being at-risk were later identi fied as learning disabled, and 96.1% of students who were considered not at-risk did not develop a learning disability."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Adding PGS as an either-cutoff screener alongside progress monitoring raises negative predictive value (fewer false negatives) at all effectiveness levels, while generally lowering PPV — related
• Simulation evidence cited in the article indicates PSW methods have consistently low positive predictive values despite high negative predictive values — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)