Adding PGS as an either-cutoff screener alongside progress monitoring raises negative predictive value (fewer false negatives) at all effectiveness levels, while generally lowering PPV¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · theoretical r2–r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Classifying students as at-risk by meeting either the progress monitoring or the PGS cutoff raised NPV in every situation except when PGS was at its theoretical limit and progress monitoring was least effective, and lowered PPV. → Shero 2021 q2 i? The NPV increase ranged from 3.4% (progress monitoring least effective, PGS at theoretical limit) to 0.3% (progress monitoring highest, PGS weakest). → Shero 2021 (2)

Evidence¶

Shero 2021¶

Shero, J., van Dijk, W., Edwards, A., Schatschneider, C., Solari, E. J., & Hart, S. A. (2021). The practical utility of genetic screening in school settings. npj Science of Learning, 6:12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-021-00090-y

q2 · i? · theoretical · r2

Density-function simulation (Results, Research question 2; Table 3) of an either-cutoff screener at the tenth-percentile disability definition, with PPV and NPV computed for each combination of PGS and progress monitoring effectiveness.

"introducing PGS as a secondary method of being identi fied as at-risk lowered positive predictive while raising NPV for every situation except when PGS reached its theoretical limit and progress monitoring was at its least effective."

Shero 2021 (2)¶

Shero, J., van Dijk, W., Edwards, A., Schatschneider, C., Solari, E. J., & Hart, S. A. (2021). The practical utility of genetic screening in school settings. npj Science of Learning, 6:12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-021-00090-y

q2 · i? · theoretical · r3

Same either-cutoff simulation results: NPV gains depend on both PGS and progress monitoring effectiveness, growing as PGS becomes more accurate and shrinking as progress monitoring becomes more accurate.

"The increase to NPV ranged from 3.4% when progress monitoring was least effective and PGS was at its theoretical limit, to 0.3% when progress monitoring is highest and PGS effectiveness is weakest."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Current progress monitoring screeners have low positive predictive value for learning disability risk even at high effectiveness (PPV 34.5%, NPV 96.1% at r = 0.70) — related
• At its current predictive level of about 2% of variance, PGS adds very little to predicting end-of-year achievement beyond progress monitoring — related
• Incremental variance predicted by PGS over progress monitoring grows with PGS effectiveness, reaching up to 4% and 8.9% at 10% and 20% predictive power and up to 35.9% at the 50% theoretical limit — related