The propensity-for-retention measure discriminates retained from not-retained students, with first-grade log-odds of retention more than three times greater for actually retained students¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 1995 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 1998: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In first grade, the log-odds of being retained on the propensity measure are more than three times greater for students who were actually retained, corresponding to probabilities of 23% versus 2%. → Stuart Luppescu 1995

Evidence¶

Stuart Luppescu 1995¶

Stuart Luppescu, Anthony S. Bryk, Paul Deabster, John Q. Easton, and Yeow Meng Thum. (1995). School Reform, Retention Policy, and Student Achievement Gains. University of Chicago draft report. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/school-reform-retention-policy-and-student-achievement-gains

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Validity check comparing mean propensity for retention of retained versus not-retained students, shown for 1988 in Figure 3 with very similar patterns in later years. The article also reports seventh-grade log-odds about 50% greater for retained students (5% vs 1%).

"In first grade, the log-odds of being retained on the propensity measure are more than three times greater for the students who were actually retained. This corresponds to a 23% probability of being retained for the students who were actually retained, compared to a probability of 2% for the students who were not retained."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Students who were promoted made larger achievement gains than students with the same propensity for retention who were retained, in almost all grades — related
• Students in the top propensity-for-retention category showed higher gains than students not in the top category — related
• Birth month is a significant predictor of retention at all grades, but its connection with achievement is substantial only in the lower primary grades
• Predictors of retention vary across grades: reading achievement is strongest in lower grades while math increases in importance later, and young-for-grade is the only predictor associated with greater retention probability