Predictors of retention vary across grades: reading achievement is strongest in lower grades while math increases in importance later, and young-for-grade is the only predictor associated with greater retention probability¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 1995 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In the lower grades reading achievement is the strongest predictor of retention, while in later grades reading becomes less important and math increases in importance. → Stuart Luppescu 1995 q2 i? Being young for grade increases slightly the probability of being retained and is the only coefficient with a positive value. → Stuart Luppescu 1995 (2)

Evidence¶

Stuart Luppescu 1995¶

Stuart Luppescu, Anthony S. Bryk, Paul Deabster, John Q. Easton, and Yeow Meng Thum. (1995). School Reform, Retention Policy, and Student Achievement Gains. University of Chicago draft report. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/school-reform-retention-policy-and-student-achievement-gains

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Logistic regressions predicting retention (0 = promoted, 1 = retained) fit separately for each grade on 1987-1988 Chicago data, with school- and grade-mean-centered academic and demographic predictors. Standardized coefficients are plotted by grade in Figure 2; no effect sizes are printed.

"In the lower grades, reading achievement is the strongest predictor, while in the later grades reading becomes less important and math increases in importance."

Stuart Luppescu 1995 (2)¶

Stuart Luppescu, Anthony S. Bryk, Paul Deabster, John Q. Easton, and Yeow Meng Thum. (1995). School Reform, Retention Policy, and Student Achievement Gains. University of Chicago draft report. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/school-reform-retention-policy-and-student-achievement-gains

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Same grade-specific logistic regressions of retention on 1987-1988 data. The article reports that none of the interactions were significant and that nearly all coefficients are negative, with young-for-grade the sole positive-direction predictor.

"Being young for grade increases slightly the probability of being retained. Note that this is the only coefficient with a positive value: for all the other predictors, a positive value in the independent variable is associated with a greater probability of being retained."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Birth month is a significant predictor of retention at all grades, but its connection with achievement is substantial only in the lower primary grades — related
• The propensity-for-retention measure discriminates retained from not-retained students, with first-grade log-odds of retention more than three times greater for actually retained students