Second-year outcomes were worst for retained eighth graders and Transition Center students: only 27% met the criteria by May 1998 and about 16% of officially retained eighth graders dropped out¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 1999 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2002: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Only 27% of retained or Transition Center eighth graders met the promotional criteria by May 1998, and roughly 16% of officially retained eighth graders dropped out by fall 1998. → Melissa Roderick 1999

Evidence¶

Melissa Roderick 1999¶

Melissa Roderick, Anthony S. Bryk, Brian A. Jacob, John Q. Easton, Elaine Allensworth. (1999). Ending Social Promotion: Results from the First Two Years. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-results-first-two-years

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Tracking of 1997-retained eighth graders and Transition Center students through 1998, including a January mid-year retest; "Only 27 percent of retained or Transition Center eighth graders met the promotional criteria by May 1998."

"Only 27 percent of retained or Transition Center eighth graders met the promotional criteria by May 1998. Approximately 38 percent had raised their test scores to the test cutoff by August 1998, compared to 47 percent of sixth graders."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Nearly a third of eighth graders retained or sent to Transition Centers in 1997 had dropped out by fall 1999, while overall eighth-grade dropout rates stayed stable — related
• Retained students struggled in their second time through the promotional policy, with only about half meeting cutoffs and eighth graders doing worst — related
• Sixth graders promoted in 1997 without meeting the test cutoff fared poorly at the eighth-grade gate, while Summer Bridge passers did relatively well — related