Nearly a third of eighth graders retained or sent to Transition Centers in 1997 had dropped out by fall 1999, while overall eighth-grade dropout rates stayed stable¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2000 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? By the end of 1999, 29 percent of students who were retained or sent to Transition Centers in 1997 had dropped out, though overall dropout rates among all eighth graders showed no appreciable difference from 1995 to 1997. → Roderick 2000

Evidence¶

Roderick 2000¶

Roderick, M., Nagaoka, J., Bacon, J., & Easton, J. Q. (2000). Update: Ending Social Promotion: Passing, Retention, and Achievement Trends Among Promoted and Retained Students 1995-1999. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://www.consortium-chicago.org

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Two-year dropout tracking comparing the 1995 pre-policy cohort with the 1997 cohort (Figure 10). Two-year dropout rates for low-achieving 1997 students (ITBS < 7.0) were slightly higher than in 1995; the brief says this is "consistent with other findings showing that overall dropout rates are stable."

"By the end of 1999, fully 29 percent of students who were retained or sent to T ransition Centers in 1997 had dropped out."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Second-year outcomes were worst for retained eighth graders and Transition Center students: only 27% met the criteria by May 1998 and about 16% of officially retained eighth graders dropped out — related
• Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19 — a broader claim this one bears on
• Dropout intentions increased over the school year among 9th-grade students — related