Retirement accounts for only a small portion of total teacher turnover¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2001 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2006: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Although teacher retirements have increased, they accounted for only 12% of total turnover from 1994 to 1995. → Ingersoll 2001

Evidence¶

Ingersoll 2001¶

Ingersoll, R. M. (2001). Teacher Turnover and Teacher Shortages: An Organizational Analysis. American Educational Research Journal, 38(3), 499-534. https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Teacher+Turnover+and+Teacher+Shortages+Ingersoll

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive analysis of SASS/TFS national data on turnover flows. In 1994-1995 about 50,000 retirees represented "only 24% of the 213,000 leavers and only 12% of the total turnover of 418,000," contradicting the graying-workforce shortage account.

"For example, from 1994 to 1995 there were about 50,000 retirees, accounting for only 24% of the 213,000 leavers and only 12% of the total turnover of 418,000"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Minority teachers who depart rarely cite retirement; dissatisfaction, pursuit of better jobs, and personal reasons dominate their reported turnover reasons — related
• Nearly three quarters (74%) of teacher turnover between 2020–21 and 2021–22 was voluntary and preretirement — related
• High teacher attrition, near 8% annually, is the largest share of teacher demand, and halving it could virtually eliminate shortages — related
• California's teacher workforce is aging, with about 40% age 50 or older and 14% age 60 or older — related
• Retirements and resignations rose in some districts during the pandemic and leaders expect higher retirement rates next year — related
• California's CalSAAS dashboards exclude teacher turnover and retention data needed for workforce planning — related