High teacher attrition, near 8% annually, is the largest share of teacher demand, and halving it could virtually eliminate shortages¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2021: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Attrition of nearly 8% of the workforce annually accounts for the largest share of annual teacher demand, and reducing attrition by half could virtually eliminate shortages. → Sutcher 2016 q2 i? U.S. attrition hovers near 8% while high-achieving jurisdictions like Finland, Singapore, and Ontario lose only about 3% to 4% of teachers yearly. → Sutcher 2016 (2)

Evidence¶

Sutcher 2016¶

Sutcher, L., Darling-Hammond, L., & Carver-Thomas, D. (2016). A coming crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S. Palo Alto, CA: Learning Policy Institute. https://learningpolicyinstitute.org/product/coming-crisis-teaching doi:10.54300/247.242

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The report's demand modeling, decomposing demand into enrollment growth, pupil-teacher ratio changes, retirement, and preretirement attrition, found "attrition... responsible for the largest share of annual demand" and states that changing attrition would reduce projected shortages more than any other single factor.

"High levels of attrition, estimated to be nearly 8% of the workforce annually, are responsible for the largest share of annual demand."

Sutcher 2016 (2)¶

Sutcher, L., Darling-Hammond, L., & Carver-Thomas, D. (2016). A coming crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S. Palo Alto, CA: Learning Policy Institute. https://learningpolicyinstitute.org/product/coming-crisis-teaching. doi:10.54300/247.242

q2 · i? · associational · r2

International comparison reported in the report: U.S. attrition "hovering near 8% over the last decade" versus about 3% to 4% in Finland, Singapore, and Ontario; the report states matching those rates would eliminate overall U.S. teacher shortages.

"Compared to high-achieving jurisdictions like Finland, Singapore, and Ontario, Canada—where only about 3% to 4% of teachers leave in a given year—U.S. attrition rates are quite high, hovering near 8% over the last decade"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Teacher attrition and turnover are primary drivers of California teacher shortages, with 12% turnover between 2016–17 and 2017–18 — related
• Teacher attrition rose from 5.1% in 1992 to 8.4% in 2005 and has hovered around 8% since — related
• U.S. teacher attrition averages 8–9% annually, about twice the rate of Canada, Finland, and Singapore, and drives roughly 9 in 10 annual hires — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Fully prepared novice teachers are less than half as likely to leave teaching after their first year than those lacking key training elements — related
• The United States faced an estimated teacher shortage of approximately 64,000 teachers in 2015–16, projected to grow to as many as 112,000 by 2018 — related
• Teacher turnover costs districts billions annually and harms student achievement — related
• Teachers without full comprehensive preparation leave at two to three times the rate of comprehensively prepared teachers — related
• Sierra Middle School staff attrition was cut nearly in half after the 2023–24 school year — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Fresno’s Skillful Leader Project improved teacher retention and hiring — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• District leaders report pandemic-era teacher workloads have at least doubled, contributing to burnout concerns and earlier-than-planned retirements — related
• Texas teacher attrition has exceeded the national average by about 25% over the past decade, reaching nearly 12% in 2021–22 — related
• In 2021–22, 99.7% of Texas teacher hires replaced teachers who had left the prior year, making attrition the dominant driver of demand — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Retirement accounts for only a small portion of total teacher turnover — related
• Texas teacher attrition exceeds the national average by over 50%, with about 12% of teachers exiting districts before the 2023–24 school year
• California's teacher workforce is aging, with about 40% age 50 or older and 14% age 60 or older — related
• California's CalSAAS dashboards exclude teacher turnover and retention data needed for workforce planning — related
• A statewide cohort analysis found 8% of new Texas teachers left after year 1, 26% by year 5, and 46% by year 8 — related
• Principal turnover is associated with lower student achievement, worse climate, and higher teacher attrition, with effects lasting up to 5 years — related
• Teachers reporting higher leadership effectiveness and supports have lower predicted turnover (9.0% vs. 18.7% for low-leadership teachers) — related