Predictive accuracy of enrollment forecasts is not meaningfully different in schools with larger proportions of Black students, economically disadvantaged students, or English learner students¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r? · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2024: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

Reading the evidence codes

q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.

This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.

q2 i? No meaningful difference in predictive accuracy was found across schools differing in proportions of Black students, economically disadvantaged students, or English learner students; equivalence was not formally tested. → Sean Tanner 2021

Evidence¶

Sean Tanner 2021¶

Sean Tanner, Jenna Terrell, Emily Vislosky, Jonathan Gellar, Brian Gill. (2021). Predicting Early Fall Student Enrollment in the School District of Philadelphia. Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, Institute of Education Sciences. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/predicting-early-fall-student-enrollment-in-the-school-district-of-philadelphia

q2 · i? · associational · r?

Subgroup analysis of prediction accuracy across SDP schools grouped by student composition. The study reports that "Predictive accuracy is not meaningfully different in schools with larger proportions of Black students, economically disadvantaged students, or English learner students." No effect size or test statistic is printed.

"Predictive accuracy is not meaningfully different in schools with larger proportions of Black students, economically disadvantaged students, or English learner students."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

Socioeconomic Status — moderator: an instructional effect differs by group

Four statistical techniques for predicting school-by-grade fall enrollment in SDP differ little in accuracy, with predicted cohort size off by roughly six students across all methods — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)

Page metadata

Field	Value
`type`	`claim`
`id`	`sdp-enrollment-prediction-accuracy-equity-null`
`title`	`Predictive accuracy of enrollment forecasts is not meaningfully different in schools with larger proportions of Black students, economically disadvantaged students, or English learner students`
`description`	`Predictive accuracy of enrollment forecasts is not meaningfully different in schools with larger proportions of Black students, economically disadvantaged students, or English learner students`
`status`	`review`
`evidence_strength`	`moderate`
`newest_evidence`	`2021`
`recheck_by`	`2024`
`generated`	by `process:wiki-ingest` on `2026-10-08`
`trust`	unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content
`sources`	1 — `sean-tanner-2021`

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