Four statistical techniques for predicting school-by-grade fall enrollment in SDP differ little in accuracy, with predicted cohort size off by roughly six students across all methods¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · design r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Across four statistical techniques, predicted cohort size differs from actual cohort size by roughly six students, so no method is meaningfully more accurate for staffing planning. → Sean Tanner 2021

Evidence¶

Sean Tanner 2021¶

Sean Tanner, Jenna Terrell, Emily Vislosky, Jonathan Gellar, Brian Gill. (2021). Predicting Early Fall Student Enrollment in the School District of Philadelphia. Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, Institute of Education Sciences. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/predicting-early-fall-student-enrollment-in-the-school-district-of-philadelphia

q2 · i? · design · r2

Comparative analysis of four prediction techniques using prior-years district data at the school-by-grade level in the School District of Philadelphia. The study reports that "The predictions differ little in accuracy: predicted cohort size differs from actual cohort size by roughly six students across all methods."

"This study compared the accuracy of four statistical techniques for predicting fall enrollment at the school-by-grade level, using data from prior years, to assess which approach might be the most useful for planning school staffing in SDP. The predictions differ little in accuracy: predicted cohort size differs from actual cohort size by roughly six students across all methods"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Predictive accuracy of enrollment forecasts is not meaningfully different in schools with larger proportions of Black students, economically disadvantaged students, or English learner students — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Even under the best prediction approach, students and teachers in 22 percent of incoming grade levels within SDP schools might have to be reassigned because of unexpected student mobility and maximum class size rules — related
• Strict class size caps raise per-student staffing costs as enrollment shrinks—a worked example shows a 44 percent cost increase when 1st grade enrollment falls from 75 to 52 students — related
• Of 259 predictors analyzed for enrollment prediction, four stand out as most important: prior cohort sizes, in-school suspensions, out-of-school suspensions, and absences — related