Even under the best prediction approach, students and teachers in 22 percent of incoming grade levels within SDP schools might have to be reassigned because of unexpected student mobility and maximum class size rules¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr?·q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2024: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
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q2 i? The statistical techniques leave much student mobility unaccounted for, and under the best approach 22 percent of incoming grade levels within schools might require reassignment of students and teachers. → Sean Tanner 2021
Evidence¶
Sean Tanner 2021¶
Sean Tanner, Jenna Terrell, Emily Vislosky, Jonathan Gellar, Brian Gill. (2021). Predicting Early Fall Student Enrollment in the School District of Philadelphia. Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic, Institute of Education Sciences. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/predicting-early-fall-student-enrollment-in-the-school-district-of-philadelphia
q2 · i? · associational · r?
Analysis of prediction error consequences in SDP reports that "The statistical techniques leave much student mobility unaccounted for" and that reassignment might affect "22 percent of incoming grade levels within schools" under the best approach, due to mobility and maximum class size rules.
"The statistical techniques leave much student mobility unaccounted for. Even under the best prediction approach, students and teachers in 22 percent of incoming grade levels within schools might have to be reassigned because of unexpected student mobility and district rules on maximum class size."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Four statistical techniques for predicting school-by-grade fall enrollment in SDP differ little in accuracy, with predicted cohort size off by roughly six students across all methods — related
- Strict class size caps raise per-student staffing costs as enrollment shrinks—a worked example shows a 44 percent cost increase when 1st grade enrollment falls from 75 to 52 students — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
sdp-enrollment-prediction-leaves-mobility-unaccounted |
title |
Even under the best prediction approach, students and teachers in 22 percent of incoming grade levels within SDP schools might have to be reassigned because of unexpected student mobility and maximum class size rules |
description |
Even under the best prediction approach, students and teachers in 22 percent of incoming grade levels within SDP schools might have to be reassigned because of unexpected student mobility and maximum class size rules |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2021 |
recheck_by |
2024 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — sean-tanner-2021 |
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