School contributions to within-year (single-year fall-to-spring) growth correlate at roughly .10 or below with school contributions to growth across elementary school (grades 2–6)¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2019 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2022: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Correlations between Z-scores for short-term (single-year) and long-term (grades 2–6) school growth contributions are highest for third grade at roughly .095 in math and reading. → Soland 2019
Evidence¶
Soland 2019¶
Soland, J., Thum, Y.M., & King, G. (2019). Reconciling long-term education policy goals with short-term school accountability models: Evidence and implications from a longitudinal study. (The Collaborative for Student Growth at NWEA Working Paper). https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/reconciling-long-term-education-policy-goals-with-short-term-school-accountability-models-paper/
q2 · i? · associational · r2
CP model analysis comparing within-year Z-scores to grades 2–6 growth Z-scores for the same schools, using a consistent student sample. Correlations were "highest for third grade with estimates of roughly .095" in both math and reading; no effect size beyond the correlation is printed, so impact is null.
"In math and reading, the correlations between Z scores for short- and long-term growth are highest for third grade with estimates of roughly .095. These results indicate that the gains attributable to schools within a single year are only tenuously associated with growth produced during elementary school."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- School growth estimates based on two years of data correlate around .55–.58 with estimates based on all five elementary years, below the .90 threshold at which ESSA accountability determinations would likely change — related
- School effectiveness estimates from fall-to-spring versus spring-to-spring growth correlate only moderately to strongly (.399 to .705), below the .90 threshold at which rank orderings diverge in accountability — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
single-year-growth-decoupled-from-elementary-long-term-growth |
title |
School contributions to within-year (single-year fall-to-spring) growth correlate at roughly .10 or below with school contributions to growth across elementary school (grades 2–6) |
description |
School contributions to within-year (single-year fall-to-spring) growth correlate at roughly .10 or below with school contributions to growth across elementary school (grades 2–6) |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2019 |
recheck_by |
2022 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — soland-2019 |
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