School growth estimates based on two years of data correlate around .55–.58 with estimates based on all five elementary years, below the .90 threshold at which ESSA accountability determinations would likely change¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2019 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2022: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Correlations between school contributions to growth estimated from spring of second through fourth grade versus spring of second through sixth grade are .584 in math and .556 in reading, suggesting different schools would be identified as low-performing under ESSA depending on the timespan. → Soland 2019
Evidence¶
Soland 2019¶
Soland, J., Thum, Y.M., & King, G. (2019). Reconciling long-term education policy goals with short-term school accountability models: Evidence and implications from a longitudinal study. (The Collaborative for Student Growth at NWEA Working Paper). https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/reconciling-long-term-education-policy-goals-with-short-term-school-accountability-models-paper/
q2 · i? · associational · r2
CP-model comparison of two-year versus five-year between-year growth Z-scores for the same schools. The article reports correlations of .584 (math) and .556 (reading), no effect size, so impact is null; the .90 practical-significance cutoff comes from Koedel and Betts (2010) as cited by the authors.
"Here, the correlations are .584 in math and .556 in reading. While these correlations are by no means small, they also likely have consequences for which schools would be deemed low-performing under ESSA."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- School contributions to within-year (single-year fall-to-spring) growth correlate at roughly .10 or below with school contributions to growth across elementary school (grades 2–6) — related
- School effectiveness estimates from fall-to-spring versus spring-to-spring growth correlate only moderately to strongly (.399 to .705), below the .90 threshold at which rank orderings diverge in accountability — related
- Ignoring summer loss can impact which schools are identified as low performers under federal accountability — related
- Ignoring summer loss changes which schools are identified as low performers — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
two-year-vs-five-year-growth-school-rankings-differ |
title |
School growth estimates based on two years of data correlate around .55–.58 with estimates based on all five elementary years, below the .90 threshold at which ESSA accountability determinations would likely change |
description |
School growth estimates based on two years of data correlate around .55–.58 with estimates based on all five elementary years, below the .90 threshold at which ESSA accountability determinations would likely change |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2019 |
recheck_by |
2022 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — soland-2019 |
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