Spring first-time college enrollees differ from fall enrollees in race/ethnicity, gender, and high school GPA, but the impact on group enrollment rates is small¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2029: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Black college enrollees were somewhat more likely than other students to enroll for the first time in the spring, though only 178 of 4,176 Black immediate enrollees did so. → Mahaffie 2024 q2 i? Students with high school GPAs below 3.0 made up a larger proportion of spring enrollees than fall enrollees. → Mahaffie 2024 (2)

Evidence¶

Mahaffie 2024¶

Mahaffie, S., Nagaoka, J., & Usher, A. (2024). Measuring Patterns of Immediate and Continued College Enrollment among CPS Graduates. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/measuring-patterns-of-immediate-and-continued-college-enrollment-among-CPSs-graduates

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive comparison of fall versus spring first-time enrollees among CPS graduates using NSC data. The article states Black students made up a higher proportion of spring four-year and spring community college enrollees than fall enrollees, yet "only 178 out of 4,176" Black immediate enrollees were spring first-time enrollees.

"only 178 out of 4,176 Black immediate college enrollees enrolled for the first time in the spring"

Mahaffie 2024 (2)¶

Mahaffie, S., Nagaoka, J., & Usher, A. (2024). Measuring Patterns of Immediate and Continued College Enrollment among CPS Graduates. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/measuring-patterns-of-immediate-and-continued-college-enrollment-among-CPSs-graduates

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive comparison of the academic qualifications of fall versus spring first-time enrollees among CPS graduates in NSC data. The article reports "GPAs below 3.0" characterized a larger share of spring enrollees, indicating the current fall-only definition somewhat underrepresents lower-GPA students.

"Students with lower high school GPAs (GPAs below 3.0) also made up a larger proportion of spring enrollees (see Figure 4)."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Gender — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• Young women were more likely than young men to both immediately enroll in and persist through college, in both four-year and two-year colleges — related
• Two-year enrollment declines were concentrated among Black and Latinx CPS graduates, while four-year rates held steady for these groups — related
• Including spring first-time enrollees changes CPS graduates' immediate college enrollment rates by no more than two percentage points in any cohort
• Latinx two-year college students' spring-to-fall return rates declined most among race/ethnicity and gender groups in 2020 — related