Teachers who are not fully certified have higher turnover than fully certified teachers (20.1% vs. 14.7%), with a larger gap among early-career teachers¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2–r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2031: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Turnover was 20.1% among teachers not fully certified versus 14.7% among fully certified teachers. → Tan 2026 q2 i? Among teachers with 1–3 years of experience, turnover was about 40% higher for those not fully certified (24% vs. 17%). → Tan 2026 (2)

Evidence¶

Tan 2026¶

Tan, T., Wei, W., Carver-Thomas, D., & García, E. (2026). Teacher turnover in the United States: Who moves, who leaves, and why. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/248.479

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive analysis of NTPS/TFS turnover by certification status. The report compares "teachers with temporary, waiver or emergency, or no certification (14.7% vs. 20.1%)" against fully certified teachers; these descriptive differences were not tested for significance.

"Smaller shares of teachers with regular or probationary teaching certificates moved schools or left teaching between 2020–21 and 2021–22 compared to teachers with temporary, waiver or emergency, or no certification (14.7% vs. 20.1%)."

Tan 2026 (2)¶

Tan, T., Wei, W., Carver-Thomas, D., & García, E. (2026). Teacher turnover in the United States: Who moves, who leaves, and why. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/248.479

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Descriptive analysis by certification and experience (Figure 5). The report states the 1–3 years turnover share was "about 40% higher among teachers not fully certified," with the executive summary printing 24% vs. 17%.

"The share of teachers with 1–3 years of experience who moved schools or left teaching was about 40% higher among teachers not fully certified than among fully certified teachers."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Teachers with high job and workplace satisfaction have less than half the predicted turnover of teachers with low satisfaction (8.0% vs. 22.0%) — related
• Turnover is about 70% higher in schools serving the most students of color, with even larger gaps for math/science, special education, and alternatively certified teachers — related
• Turnover is higher in charter schools (17.8%) than traditional public schools (14.9%) and higher in city schools (17.7%) than other locales — related
• Teachers reporting higher leadership effectiveness and supports have lower predicted turnover (9.0% vs. 18.7% for low-leadership teachers) — related
• Between 2020–21 and 2021–22, 15.1% of U.S. public school teachers moved schools or left the profession, and turnover is now about 20% higher than in 1992 — related
• Students of under-certified teachers made about 20% less academic growth per year than students of regularly certified teachers — related
• Teachers who enter without completed preparation are typically less effective and have significantly higher turnover than prepared teachers — a broader claim this one bears on
• Alternatively certified teachers are 25% more likely to leave their schools and the profession, controlling for other factors — related