Error rates for comparing a teacher's performance to the average are about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr?·q2
Currency · newest study 2013 · checked against its sources 2026-10-18 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2016: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
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q2 i? Using value-added models, error rates for comparing a teacher's performance to the average are likely to be about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data. → Peter Z. Schochet 2013
Evidence¶
Peter Z. Schochet 2013¶
Peter Z. Schochet, Hanley S. Chiang. (2013). What Are Error Rates for Classifying Teacher and School Performance Using Value-Added Models? Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, vol. 38, no. 2. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/what-are-error-rates-for-classifying-teacher-and-school-performance-using-value-added-models doi:10.3102/1076998611432174
q2 · i? · associational · r?
Analytical estimation using formulas based on ordinary least squares and empirical Bayes estimators applied to student test score gain data for upper elementary grades. The article reports that "error rates for comparing a teacher’s performance to the average are likely to be about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data."
"error rates for comparing a teacher’s performance to the average are likely to be about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Value-added error rates apply to measuring both teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using student test score gain data — a broader claim this one bears on
- Overall false positive error rates are about 10 percent and false negative error rates about 20 percent for value-added performance classifications — related
- Overall false positive and false negative error rates in teacher value-added performance classification are about 10 and 20 percent, respectively — related
- Value-added estimates are likely to be noisy with the amount of data typically used in practice — related
- The working paper examines the sensitivity and precision of teacher value-added estimates under specifications differing in student-level, peer-level, and double-lagged achievement controls — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
value-added-teacher-comparison-error-rates-25-35-percent |
title |
Error rates for comparing a teacher's performance to the average are about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data |
description |
Error rates for comparing a teacher's performance to the average are about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2013 |
source_checked |
2026-10-18 |
recheck_by |
2016 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — peter-z-schochet-2013 |
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