Value-added estimates are likely to be noisy with the amount of data typically used in practice¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoreticalr?·q2
Currency · newest study 2010 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2013: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Simulation results suggest value-added estimates based on typical amounts of student test score gain data are likely to be noisy. → Peter Z. Schochet 2010
Evidence¶
Peter Z. Schochet 2010¶
Peter Z. Schochet, Hanley S. Chiang. (2010). Error Rates in Measuring Teacher and School Performance Based on Student Test Score Gains. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/
q2 · i? · theoretical · r?
Simulation analysis of value-added estimation error using OLS and Empirical Bayes estimators applied to student test score gain data in the upper elementary grades. The abstract concludes estimates are "likely to be noisy" with typically available data.
"Simulation results suggest that value-added estimates are likely to be noisy using the amount of data that are typically used in practice."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide at most a small amount of information for predicting principals' future contributions to student achievement — related
- School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions in the following year — related
- Averaging principal performance measures across multiple recent years does not improve their accuracy for predicting principals' contributions in the following year — related
- School value added provides very poor information for revealing principals' persistent levels of effectiveness — related
- Average achievement and adjusted average achievement measures provide no information for predicting principals' contributions to student achievement in the following year — related
- Only a small amount of data is available about U.S. businesses in their first years of operation — related
- Error rates for comparing a teacher's performance to the average are about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data — related
- Value-added error rates apply to measuring both teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using student test score gain data — related
- The study used two sets of analyses—rating stability and the stable component's link to future contributions—to simulate each measure's predictive accuracy — related
- School median student growth percentiles were stable year to year even when the school changed principals — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
value-added-estimates-noisy-typical-data |
title |
Value-added estimates are likely to be noisy with the amount of data typically used in practice |
description |
Value-added estimates are likely to be noisy with the amount of data typically used in practice |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2010 |
recheck_by |
2013 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — peter-z-schochet-2010 |
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