Simulation model of 108 school situations predicting infections and in-person attendance under opening, quarantining, and closing strategies¶

Element · All elements
Evidence · 7 claims (7 for) · 2 studies (1 design, 1 theoretical), q2 · 0 of 2 report an effect size · 7 claims rest on one study

Description¶

A modeling tool developed by Mathematica to support school reopening decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic. It "ran complex models of 108 different school situations, including urban, suburban, and rural settings" and "modelled outcomes for various in-person, hybrid, and distance learning approaches." Outputs include likely infections in a school, total likely infections when the first infection is detected, and the percentage of school days a student can attend in person.

Design Implications¶

Context¶

Requirements¶

• Requires community and school context information to select among the modeled school situations

Constraints¶

• Results are model-based predictions, not measured infection outcomes

Target Learners¶

• K-12 students in urban, suburban, and rural schools

Target Learning Goals¶

• Maintaining in-person learning opportunities while mitigating COVID-19 spread

Claims¶

• Elementary schools are predicted to have lower infection rates than secondary schools using the same operating strategies [+W]
• Hybrid approaches with smaller masked groups attending part-time dramatically reduce total likely infections, and most outside infections produce zero additional in-school infections [+W]
• Requiring masks measurably reduces infection spread in schools, according to simulation models of school operating strategies [+W]
• In schools attending fully in person, temporary closures in response to known cases are far less effective than hybrid operation from the start and increase schedule disruption [+W]
• The most effective transmission-reducing testing strategies also increase the number of in-person school days lost, creating a tradeoff schools must weigh [+W]
• Agent-based modeling indicates routine testing can greatly reduce or eliminate within-school Covid-19 transmission [+W]
• For higher-risk schools relying on testing, pooled PCR testing is generally the most effective strategy, with serial antigen testing a close second [+W]

Related Elements¶

Examples¶

• Use a hybrid operating strategy with masks from the start rather than relying on reactive temporary closures

Key Sources¶

• Brian P. Gill, Ravi Goyal, John Hotchkiss. (2020). Operating Schools in a Pandemic: Predicted Effects of Opening, Quarantining, and Closing Strategies. Princeton, NJ: Mathematica. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/operating-schools-in-a-pandemic-predicted-effects-of-opening-and-quarantining-strategies