Class-average achievement negatively predicts mathematics self-concept after controlling individual achievement (BFLPE replication in TIMSS 2019)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In TIMSS 2019 Grade 8 mathematics data from 46 countries, individual achievement positively predicted mathematics self-concept while class-average achievement negatively predicted it. → Herbert W. Marsh 2026

Evidence¶

Herbert W. Marsh 2026¶

Herbert W. Marsh. (2026). Four Decades After the Big-Fish–Little-Pond Effect: Critical Boundary Tests and Integrative Models of Mean-Context, Ordinal-Standing, and Distributional-Scaling in 46 Countries. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-026-10200-0

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Multilevel Model 2 (Table 1) predicting mathematics self-concept from student achievement (L1) and class-average achievement (L2) in TIMSS 2019 data (262,988 students, 11,684 classes, 46 countries), pooled across five plausible values. The contextual effect was "strongly negative (L2 = − 0.633, SE = 0.006)" in MSC SD units with country-cluster-robust standard errors.

"Consistent with H1, individual achievement was strongly positive (L1 = 0.573, SE = 0.003), whereas the contextual class-average effect—the BFLPE—was strongly negative (L2 = − 0.633, SE = 0.006)."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Academic Self-Concept — outcome: instruction changes it

Related Claims¶

• The negative contextual-mean effect persists for the top-ranked student in each class, constraining rank-sufficiency accounts — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Adding a quadratic achievement term leaves the negative contextual-mean effect essentially unchanged — related
• Contextual-mean effects show little moderation by individual achievement; apparent positive moderation is illusory when the quadratic term is omitted — related
• Equally able students have lower academic self-concepts in high-average-ability schools (the BFLPE), with a cross-national effect size of 0.49 — a broader claim this one bears on
• Class-average achievement and chosen upward comparisons each make substantial, unique negative contributions to math self-beliefs when modeled simultaneously — related
• Integrative models indicate much of the apparent ordinal-rank effect reflects distributionally scaled relative achievement, while contextual means remain the most robust comparative indicator — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Class-average achievement shows a small negative indirect effect on subsequent mathematics achievement mediated through mathematics self-concept — related
• The Big-Fish-Little-Pond effect on mathematics self-concept is negative and statistically significant in all three countries under a fully specified doubly latent model — related
• Positive class-level peer spillover effects on mathematics achievement fail to replicate once measurement error is controlled with doubly latent models — related
• School-average achievement negatively predicts parent, teacher, and student expectations and parent aspirations, with larger adverse effects for parents and especially teachers than students — related
• The BFLPE is one of the most robust findings in educational psychology, with negative school-average achievement effects on ASC in 181 of 191 PISA samples — related
• School-average achievement negatively predicts academic self-concept (BFLPE) and GPA in the comprehensive doubly-latent model — related
• Classroom-average mathematics achievement shows no statistically significant association with ASC development when clique achievement is modeled simultaneously — reports the opposite
• Clique-average mathematics achievement negatively predicts the development of adolescents' academic self-concept (a BFLPE at the clique level) — related
• Individual mathematics achievement is positively associated with students' ASC development over the school year — related
• The BFLPE exists in both elementary-school and secondary-school contexts — related
• Equally able students report lower academic self-concepts in high-achieving classrooms than in low-achieving classrooms (the Big-Fish-Little-Pond Effect) — related