Two-year persistence in four-year colleges declined from 66 percent to 60 percent over five years even as enrollee numbers grew¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2023: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Of 8,708 CPS 2014 graduates who enrolled directly in a four-year college, 60 percent persisted continuously for four semesters, down from 66 percent five years earlier, though total persisters rose to 5,206 from 4,325 in 2009. → Nagaoka 2018
Evidence¶
Nagaoka 2018¶
Nagaoka, J., & Seeskin, A. (2018). The Educational Attainment of Chicago Public Schools Students: 2017. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/educational-attainment-chicago-public-schools-students-2017
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Descriptive trend analysis of National Student Clearinghouse data shown in Figure 5 for 2003–2014 graduates. The brief reports the rate "has declined over the past five years from 66 percent to 60 percent" while persisters grew to 5,206.
"Of the 8,708 CPS 2014 graduates who enrolled directly in a four-year college, 60 percent were continuously enrolled in a four-year college for four semesters (see Figure 5)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Four-year college graduation rates remained flat at about 49 percent for direct four-year enrollees, with much lower rates for two-year (8 percent) and delayed enrollees (4 percent) — related
- Nearly half (47 percent) of CPS graduates enrolled directly in a four-year college in 2016, with total direct enrollment up by roughly 5,500 students over a decade — related
- Small year-to-year increases in CPS milestones have accumulated so that approximately 6,400 more students enroll directly in college today than 12 years ago — related
- IB DP students who attended four-year colleges were significantly more likely to persist in college for at least two years — related
- CPS graduates' four-year college graduation rate remained roughly constant over seven years (46 to 48 percent) and well below the national rate — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
cps-two-year-persistence-declined-66-to-60 |
title |
Two-year persistence in four-year colleges declined from 66 percent to 60 percent over five years even as enrollee numbers grew |
description |
Two-year persistence in four-year colleges declined from 66 percent to 60 percent over five years even as enrollee numbers grew |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2018 |
recheck_by |
2023 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — nagaoka-2018 |
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