In Mnemosyne flashcard log data, adding a delay term improves the recall-prediction performance of exponential forgetting curve memory models.¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2019: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Across paired exponential forgetting curve models with and without a delay term, incorporating the delay term improved predictive performance on Mnemosyne log data; no numeric AUC values are printed in the text. → Reddy 2016
Evidence¶
Reddy 2016¶
Reddy, S., Labutov, I., Banerjee, S., & Joachims, T. (2016). Unbounded Human Learning: Optimal Scheduling for Spaced Repetition. KDD ’16, San Francisco, CA, USA. https://doi.org/10.1145/2939672.2939850
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Observational study of Mnemosyne flashcard log data, comparing memory models by cross-validated validation AUC. The first of four observations is that "Incorporating a delay term improves the performance of the memory model", shown by paired models in Fig. 2; the text prints no AUC values.
"Positive impact of delay term: Incorporating a delay term improves the performance of the memory model."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
-
The survey reports, citing Pavlik et al., that no single knowledge tracing model was always the best, and that a better model must consider multiple student features and the learning context. — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
-
Memory-decay-based models fit fact-learning datasets better than models insensitive to memory decay — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
- Spaced Repetition Improves Retention
- In Mnemosyne log data, exponential forgetting curve models that include a delay term perform comparably to 1PL-IRT, the best-performing benchmark model. — related
- In Mnemosyne log data, setting memory strength equal to an item's Leitner deck position predicts recall better than number of past reviews, which beats constant strength. — related
- In Mnemosyne log data, item-specific difficulty parameters outperform a global difficulty for lower and higher Leitner decks, while global difficulty performs better for intermediate decks. — related
- Repeated retrieval practice alters the rate at which learned items are forgotten, according to learn-to-criterion studies and forgetting-curve analyses the chapter reviews — related
- VeriForge's integrated workflow is associated with higher one-week delayed recall of domain terms and a higher retention rate (exploratory) — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
delay-term-improves-exponential-forgetting-curve-recall-prediction |
title |
In Mnemosyne flashcard log data, adding a delay term improves the recall-prediction performance of exponential forgetting curve memory models. |
description |
In Mnemosyne flashcard log data, adding a delay term improves the recall-prediction performance of exponential forgetting curve memory models. |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2016 |
source_checked |
2026-10-20 |
recheck_by |
2019 |
generated |
by claude/unspecified on 2026-09-24 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — reddy-2016 |
Frontmatter is the page's machine-readable record — see the Schema & Guide.