Delaying judgments of learning after study markedly reduces, but does not eliminate, the foresight bias¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r1–r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2006 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Overconfidence for backward pairs fell from 32.3% with immediate JOLs to 12.0% with delayed JOLs, a significant triple interaction. → Koriat 2006 q3 i? Delayed JOLs also improved resolution: gamma averaged .64 for immediate-JOL items versus .86 for delayed-JOL items. → Koriat 2006 (2)

Evidence¶

Koriat 2006¶

Koriat, A., & Bjork, R. A. (2006). Illusions of competence during study can be remedied by manipulations that enhance learners' sensitivity to retrieval conditions at test. Memory & Cognition, 34(5), 959-972. https://doi.org/10.3758/bf03193244

q3 · i? · causal · r1

Experiment 4, 40 Hebrew-speaking undergraduates, immediate versus delayed JOLs on forward, backward, and unrelated pairs; the three-way interaction was significant [F(1,19) 9.92, p .01], with overconfidence for backward pairs dropping from 32.3% to 12.0%.

"Whereas immediate JOLs yielded an overconfidence bias amounting to 6.4% and 32.3% for the forward and backward pairs, respectively, the respective values for delayed JOLs were 4.3% and 12.0%."

Koriat 2006 (2)¶

Koriat, A., & Bjork, R. A. (2006). Illusions of competence during study can be remedied by manipulations that enhance learners' sensitivity to retrieval conditions at test. Memory & Cognition, 34(5), 959-972. https://doi.org/10.3758/bf03193244

q3 · i? · causal · r2

Experiment 4 resolution analysis for the 20 participants with recall data: JOL–recall gamma averaged .64 for immediate-JOL items and .86 for delayed-JOL items, "averaged .64 and .86, respectively, across partici- pants".

"These correla- tions averaged .64 and .86, respectively, across partici- pants [t(19) 4.23, p .001]."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Age did not interact with associative relatedness or effective encoding-strategy use in predicting JOLs, indicating no age differences in the use of these two sources of information when making judgments of learning — related
• Delayed JOL bias: multiple text readers are underconfident, rereaders overconfident at one day, and single readers overconfident at one week — related
• Backward-associated word pairs produce a foresight bias: judgments of learning are inflated relative to actual recall when the dominant association runs from target to cue — related
• Repeated study–test practice reduces the foresight bias for backward pairs, with the illusion of competence disappearing by the fourth presentation — related