Most students who ultimately failed the exam still expected to pass three days before it, showing persistent overconfidence despite knowledge gain¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causalr2·q3
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
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This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i? 71.4% of students who failed the exam predicted a passing score three days before the exam, down from 91.1% at course start. → de Bruin 2017
Evidence¶
de Bruin 2017¶
de Bruin, A. B. H., Kok, E. M., Lobbestael, J., & de Grip, A. (2017). The impact of an online tool for monitoring and regulating learning at university: overconfidence, learning strategy, and personality. Metacognition and Learning, 12, 21–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-016-9159-5
q3 · i? · causal · r2
Descriptive analysis of pass/fail expectations among students in the quartile-based monitoring accuracy study; at course start 91.1% (41 of 45) of eventual failers predicted they would pass (score at least 5.5 on the 10-point scale).
"Most alarming, 3 days before the exam still 71.4% of those who failed (15 out of 21 students. Note: N differs due to drop-out at t = 2 )b e l i e v e dt h e yw o u l dp a s st h ee x a m ."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Exam score predictions decreased from the start to the end of the course for all performance quartiles, leaving poor performers overconfident and high performers underconfident — related
- Grandiose narcissism predicted overconfidence in exam score predictions at both time points, while vulnerable narcissism predicted less overconfidence only at course start and optimism was unrelated — related
- Three learners who studied only the framework's knowledge base all passed the NVIDIA Certified Professional in Agentic AI exam — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
failers-still-expected-to-pass |
title |
Most students who ultimately failed the exam still expected to pass three days before it, showing persistent overconfidence despite knowledge gain |
description |
Most students who ultimately failed the exam still expected to pass three days before it, showing persistent overconfidence despite knowledge gain |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2017 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-19 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — de-bruin-2017 |
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