Exam score predictions decreased from the start to the end of the course for all performance quartiles, leaving poor performers overconfident and high performers underconfident¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q3 · i3 large
Currency · newest study 2017 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i3 The signed prediction-minus-exam-score difference (the paper's "absolute accuracy") decreased over time (main effect of time, ηp2 = .234) and differed strongly across quartiles (ηp2 = .54), with no time-by-quartile interaction; this brought the overconfident lower quartiles closer to their scores but left the underconfident top quartile slightly more underconfident (−0.80 to −1.03). → de Bruin 2017

Evidence¶

de Bruin 2017¶

de Bruin, A. B. H., Kok, E. M., Lobbestael, J., & de Grip, A. (2017). The impact of an online tool for monitoring and regulating learning at university: overconfidence, learning strategy, and personality. Metacognition and Learning, 12, 21–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-016-9159-5

q3 · i3 · causal · r2

2x4 repeated measures ANOVA on absolute accuracy at t=0 and t=2 with performance quartile as between-subjects factor. The quartile main effect was F(3, 125) = 49.06, p < .001, ηp2 = .54; the interaction was not significant, F(3, 125) = 1.79, p = .15.

"There was a significant main effect of time, F(1, 125) = 38.15, p <. 0 0 1 ,ηp 2 = .234, indicating that the difference between predictions and exam scores decreased from t =0 t o t =2 ."

Discussion¶

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