Grandiose narcissism predicted overconfidence in exam score predictions at both time points, while vulnerable narcissism predicted less overconfidence only at course start and optimism was unrelated¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Higher NPI (grandiose narcissism) scores were significantly positively related to overconfidence at t=0 and t=2; HSNS (vulnerable narcissism) was negatively related at t=0 only; LOT-R optimism was not significantly related at either time. → de Bruin 2017

Evidence¶

de Bruin 2017¶

de Bruin, A. B. H., Kok, E. M., Lobbestael, J., & de Grip, A. (2017). The impact of an online tool for monitoring and regulating learning at university: overconfidence, learning strategy, and personality. Metacognition and Learning, 12, 21–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-016-9159-5

q3 · i? · causal · r2

Multiple regression analyses at t=0 and t=2 with absolute accuracy as dependent variable and NPI, HSNS, LOT-R, language and sex as predictors (t=0 multilevel with random course intercept). At t=0, NPI: B = 0.011, p = .001; HSNS: B = −0.153, p = .008.

"At t = 2, again, the NPI score was significantly positively related to absolute accuracy. However, the HSNS score was not significantly related to absolute accuracy of the exam score predictions close to the exam date. LOT -R scores were also not significantly related to absolute accuracy."

de Bruin 2017 (2)¶

de Bruin, A. B. H., Kok, E. M., Lobbestael, J., & de Grip, A. (2017). The impact of an online tool for monitoring and regulating learning at university: overconfidence, learning strategy, and personality. Metacognition and Learning, 12, 21–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-016-9159-5

q3 · i? · causal · r2

Multiple regression on absolute accuracy during the Monitoring Exercise (t=1a) found no significant personality effects; the article notes this analysis was based on a rather small number of participants.

"The three personality measures (LOT -R, NPI, HSNS) were also not significantly related with absolute accuracy during the Monitoring Exercise."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

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• Exam score predictions decreased from the start to the end of the course for all performance quartiles, leaving poor performers overconfident and high performers underconfident — related
• Most students who ultimately failed the exam still expected to pass three days before it, showing persistent overconfidence despite knowledge gain — related
• The Monitoring Exercise protected against overconfidence in the second exam score prediction but did not affect exam scores — related
• Bias scores did not improve over the school year, but school year level mattered: year 1 students became less overconfident while year 3 students improved their underconfidence — related
• Monitoring accuracy in exam score predictions and in key-term definition judgments during the Monitoring Exercise were uncorrelated, suggesting different cues underlie the two measures — related
• Metacognitive monitoring bias and precision modulate when students stop studying relative to their goals — related