Freshman GPA is highly stable, correlating 0.87 with eleventh-grade GPA¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2 · i3 large
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i3 The correlation between ninth- and eleventh-grade GPA is r = 0.87, and most students retain the same GPA category two years later (e.g., 75 percent of B students kept a B average). → Easton 2017

Evidence¶

Easton 2017¶

Easton, J.Q., Johnson, E., & Sartain, L. (2017). The predictive power of ninth-grade GPA. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/predictive-power-ninth-grade-gpa

q2 · i3 · associational · r2

Correlational analysis of CPS transcript data (2010-12 cohorts) relating ninth- to eleventh-grade GPA; Table 3 shows category stability, e.g. 99 percent of A students earned As or Bs two years later. The printed correlation is "a coefficient of 0.87" (r = 0.87), which the article calls quite large.

"Using correlation to measure the relationship between freshman GPA and GPA two years later, we found a coefficient of 0.87. This correlation coefficient is quite large by most standards"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Ninth-grade GPA predicts college enrollment and one-year college persistence in linear, incremental patterns — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related