Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Adjusted for controls and fixed effects, higher freshman GPA predicts higher probability of graduating high school in four years, with the largest difference between F (about 18 percent) and D (about 60 percent) students. → Easton 2017

Evidence¶

Easton 2017¶

Easton, J.Q., Johnson, E., & Sartain, L. (2017). The predictive power of ninth-grade GPA. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/predictive-power-ninth-grade-gpa

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Observational analysis of CPS administrative data (2009-11 cohorts) using models adjusting for school and school-by-cohort fixed effects and controls for demographics, prior test scores, neighborhood poverty, course-taking, and special education status. The figure-text reports the F-vs-D graduation contrast: "large difference in graduation rates between F students (at about 18 percent) and D students (at about 60 percent)."

"Note on the figure the large difference in graduation rates between F students (at about 18 percent) and D students (at about 60 percent). This suggests that avoiding freshman Fs is an important way to increase the likelihood of on-time graduation"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

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