Ninth-grade GPA predicts college enrollment and one-year college persistence in linear, incremental patterns¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Adjusted freshman GPA predicts college enrollment (about 18 percent of F students vs 70 percent of A students enrolling) and, conditional on enrolling, one-year persistence. → Easton 2017

Evidence¶

Easton 2017¶

Easton, J.Q., Johnson, E., & Sartain, L. (2017). The predictive power of ninth-grade GPA. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/predictive-power-ninth-grade-gpa

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Analysis of CPS records linked to National Student Clearinghouse data (2008-10 cohorts), with fixed effects and controls; enrollment coded unconditional on graduation. Quote reports the printed enrollment rates by GPA category; persistence (2007-09 cohorts, conditional on enrollment) followed the same linear pattern.

"about 18 percent of students who had an F freshman GPA went on to college. About 35 percent of students with Ds went to college; about 50 percent of students with Cs did. B and A students fared better: 60 percent of B students went to college and 70 percent of A students did."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Freshman GPA is highly stable, correlating 0.87 with eleventh-grade GPA — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• NLCI high school outcomes were lower than those of similar students at other CPS schools for most years of the initiative — related
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — related
• Students' survey reports of their school experiences predict later academic and well-being outcomes including attendance, grades, test scores, graduation, college enrollment, and well-being — related
• The College Experiences Survey was conducted as part of an evaluation of factors associated with college persistence and attrition — related
• Ten percent of CPS graduates who did not enroll in college within six years had an average high school GPA above 3.0, a missed opportunity for high-achieving students — related
• CPS graduates with higher ACT scores had higher overall and four-year enrollment rates, and at least an ACT score of 18 gave at least a 50 percent probability of four-year enrollment — related
• CPS graduates' grades predicted college enrollment: graduates needed at least a 2.5 GPA for close to a 50 percent likelihood of enrolling in a four-year college — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Course grades are more predictive than standardized test scores of high school and college success — related
• Prediction and intervention are different problems: highly predictive features such as prior GPA are often ones an institution cannot change — related