Children became significantly less overconfident from kindergarten to 2nd grade but remained overconfident at both time points¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q3 · i3 large
Currency · newest study 2022 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q3 i3 Monitoring accuracy improved significantly from T1 to T2 (ηp² = 0.148). → Sonja Kälin 2022 q3 i3 Children showed significant overconfidence at both measurement points (d = 0.86 at T1; d = 0.49 at T2). → Sonja Kälin 2022 (2)

Evidence¶

Sonja Kälin 2022¶

Sonja Kälin, Claudia M. Roebers. (2022). Longitudinal associations between executive functions and metacognitive monitoring in 5- to 8-year-olds. Metacognition and Learning. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-022-09306-x

q3 · i3 · associational · r2

Repeated measures ANOVA on the bias index across the two measurement points in N = 84 children, showing significantly less overconfidence at T2, F(1,83) = 14.4, p < .001, ηp² = 0.148, a large effect.

"Investigating the improvement of monitoring between T1 and T2, a repeated measures ANOV A revealed that children were significantly less overconfident at T2 compared to T1, F(1,83) = 14.4, p < .001, ηp² = 0.148."

Sonja Kälin 2022 (2)¶

Sonja Kälin, Claudia M. Roebers. (2022). Longitudinal associations between executive functions and metacognitive monitoring in 5- to 8-year-olds. Metacognition and Learning. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-022-09306-x

q3 · i3 · associational · r2

One-sample t tests of the bias index against zero in N = 84 children showed significant overconfidence at both time points, with Cohen's d = 0.86 at T1 and d = 0.49 at T2, indicating overconfidence persisted though diminished.

"T tests comparing the bias index against 0 (realistic performance estimation) revealed a significant overconfidence at both measurement points, T1: T(83) = 7.91, p < .001, Cohen’s d = 0.86; T2: T(83) = 4.52, p < .001, Cohen’s d = 0.49."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Children's test performance is stable over six months but monitoring and control accuracy shows little inter-individual stability — reports the opposite
• Children's text comprehension test performance improved from T1 to T2, driven mainly by second graders, with fewer omission errors over time — related
• Children of both age groups improved monitoring and control accuracy from T1 to T2 for both test formats, mainly for incorrect rather than correct answers — related
• Overconfidence (bias) decreased from pretest to posttest across all groups including control, with no group differences — related
• Better inhibition skills in kindergarten predict less overconfident metacognitive monitoring in 2nd grade, explaining 11% of variance — related