Claims

The same retention estimator applied to non-proctored assessment yields an opposite-signed 85% increase in odds of correct response on AI-susceptible items

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2029: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims

Reading the evidence codes

q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.

This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.

q2 i? In the non-proctored random-assignment subsample, AI-susceptible items become more likely to be answered correctly after ChatGPT's release, by 5.61% per quarter on the log-odds scale (85% cumulative increase). → Rismanchian 2026

Evidence

Rismanchian 2026

Rismanchian, S., Uzun, H., Matayoshi, J., Cosyn, E., & Kurd-Misto, E. (2026). Faster Completion, Less Learning: Generative AI Reduced Study Time on Math Problems and the Knowledge They Build. arXiv preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21629 doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.21629

q2 · i? · causal · r2

The same logistic ramp estimator applied to the non-proctored retention sample (3,223 item-level observations) yields "β= + 0.0561, p= 0.021" and an 85% cumulative odds increase — opposite in sign to the proctored result.

"AI-susceptible items becomemorelikely to be answered correctly after ChatGPT's release than AI-resistant items, by 5.61% per quarter on the log-odds scale in the random-assignment subsample (β= + 0.0561, p= 0.021). The cumulative effect is an 85% increase in the odds of correct response."

Discussion

Page metadata
Field Value
type claim
id nonproctored-retention-reversal-85-percent
title The same retention estimator applied to non-proctored assessment yields an opposite-signed 85% increase in odds of correct response on AI-susceptible items
description The same retention estimator applied to non-proctored assessment yields an opposite-signed 85% increase in odds of correct response on AI-susceptible items
status review
evidence_strength moderate
newest_evidence 2026
recheck_by 2029
generated by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-10
trust unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content
sources 1 — rismanchian-2026

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