A bias-free experimental-probability subcategory (o**) emerged only in the die-rolling task¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · qualitative r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Type o** thinkers adequately used experimental probability, recognising that many repeated trials are needed and showing awareness of the law of large numbers; this subcategory appeared only in responses to the die task. → Elbehary 2021

Evidence¶

Elbehary 2021¶

Elbehary, S.G.A. (2021). Reasoning under uncertainty within the context of probability education: A case study of preservice mathematics teachers. Pythagoras, 42(1), a630. https://doi.org/10.4102/pythagoras.v42i1.630

q2 · i? · qualitative · r2

Qualitative coding of die-task responses. The article reports o** thinkers 'expressed a clear understanding of such a concept without biases', treated probability as a posterior judgment requiring frequency data, and showed 'an awareness of the law of large numbers'.

"the sub-category of type o** thinkers, which substantially deviates from o and o*, emerged only during the analysis of PSMTs’ responses to the second task"

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Statistical Reasoning — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Mathematically oriented PSMTs exhibit equiprobability and insensitivity-to-prior-probability biases — related
• Subjectively oriented reasoning emerged in the giving-birth context but disappeared in the die-rolling task — related
• Some outcome-oriented PSMTs (types o and o) predict single-trial outcomes, and type o thinkers conflate causality with conditionality — related
• The Egyptian school probability curriculum is dominated by quasi-pedagogical randomising-device tasks