Some outcome-oriented PSMTs (types o and o) predict single-trial outcomes, and type o thinkers conflate causality with conditionality¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · qualitative r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2024: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Type o and o* thinkers interpreted probability questions as asking when or how a favourable outcome would occur, made yes-no predictions, and o* thinkers assumed a causal relationship between conditioning event and outcome. The third outcome-oriented subgroup, o**, used experimental probability without these biases. → Elbehary 2021

Evidence¶

Elbehary 2021¶

Elbehary, S.G.A. (2021). Reasoning under uncertainty within the context of probability education: A case study of preservice mathematics teachers. Pythagoras, 42(1), a630. https://doi.org/10.4102/pythagoras.v42i1.630

q2 · i? · qualitative · r2

Qualitative analysis of giving-birth and die responses. The article reports o/o* thinkers focused on the outcome rather than its probability, mirroring Konold's (1989) outcome-oriented description, and that o* thinkers were 'less conscious of the distinction between causality and conditionality'.

"Consequently, type o* thinkers share the causal conception since they assumed a causal relationship at which the conditioning event B is the cause and A is the consequence"

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Statistical Reasoning — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Attributing outcomes to Allah's will among some PSMTs functioned as probabilistic reasoning, not mere personalist belief — related
• Mathematically oriented PSMTs exhibit equiprobability and insensitivity-to-prior-probability biases — related
• A bias-free experimental-probability subcategory (o**) emerged only in the die-rolling task — related
• Subjectively oriented reasoning emerged in the giving-birth context but disappeared in the die-rolling task — related