Subjectively oriented reasoning emerged in the giving-birth context but disappeared in the die-rolling task¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · qualitative r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2026: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? About 60% of PSMTs (41 of 68) reasoned subjectively in the giving-birth context, but no subjective reasoning appeared in the die task; in this qualitative comparison of responses to two items, subjective reasoning appeared in the realistic-context item and not in the die item, which the author reads as suggesting the fruitfulness of realistic contexts for displaying subjective probability (other realistic contexts and randomising devices were not tested). → Elbehary 2021

Evidence¶

Elbehary 2021¶

Elbehary, S.G.A. (2021). Reasoning under uncertainty within the context of probability education: A case study of preservice mathematics teachers. Pythagoras, 42(1), a630. https://doi.org/10.4102/pythagoras.v42i1.630

q2 · i? · qualitative · r2

Cross-case comparison of the same 68 PSMTs' responses to two questionnaire items. The article reports subjective reasoning matched 'nearly 60% (41 cases from 68)' in giving birth yet 'did not emerge in the task of throwing a die'; the author reads this as supporting the fruitfulness of realistic contexts for displaying subjective probability, from one realistic item and one die item.

"the category of subjectively oriented thinkers, noted by S and including s, s*, and s **, which matches nearly 60% (41 cases from 68) of PSMTs’ reasoning in the context of giving birth, did not emerge in the task of throwing a die"

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Statistical Reasoning — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Attributing outcomes to Allah's will among some PSMTs functioned as probabilistic reasoning, not mere personalist belief — related
• The Egyptian school probability curriculum is dominated by quasi-pedagogical randomising-device tasks — related
• Mathematically oriented PSMTs exhibit equiprobability and insensitivity-to-prior-probability biases — related
• A bias-free experimental-probability subcategory (o**) emerged only in the die-rolling task — related
• Some outcome-oriented PSMTs (types o and o) predict single-trial outcomes, and type o thinkers conflate causality with conditionality — related