The on-track–graduation relationship remains strong after accounting for student background characteristics¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q3
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? After accounting for elementary achievement, race/ethnicity, gender, economic status, and age at entry, on-track students with typical CPS backgrounds were 55 percentage points more likely to graduate in four years than similar off-track students in the same school. → Allensworth 2005

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r3

Statistical analyses of CPS cohorts controlling for background characteristics, reported in the section on whether on-track merely reflects background. The report states the relationship "remained very strong after accounting for differences between students" and that the indicator predicts equally well for all students and in all schools but one.

"the students on-track at the end of freshman year were 55 percentage points more likely to graduate in four years than similar off-track students in the same school (81 percent compared to 26 percent)"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Improvements in ninth-grade course performance—credits earned, pass rates, and attendance—account for most graduation improvements beyond student background changes — related
• Successfully transitioning from intermediate school to secondary school is pivotal for students to remain on track to graduate — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• The Freshman OnTrack indicator is more predictive of graduation than eighth-grade test scores, SES, race/ethnicity, gender, and school mobility combined, and raising it raises graduation rates — a broader claim this one bears on
• Teachers' early expectations predict students' later perceived competence in physical education beyond students' background characteristics — related