Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · checked against its sources 2026-10-08 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2024: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Even after controlling for demographic characteristics and entering test scores, the predicted probability of graduation was 55 percentage points higher (81 percent vs. 26 percent) for on-track versus off-track ninth-graders. → Roderick 2021 q2 i? Eighth-grade test scores and family background explain only 8 percent of the variation in ninth-grade course failure rates across students. → Roderick 2021 (2)

Evidence¶

Roderick 2021¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The report summarizes Allensworth and Easton's estimate that, controlling for demographics and entering test scores, "the predicted probability of graduation was 55 percentage points higher (81 percent vs. 26 percent)" for on-track students. Observational estimate; no standardized effect size.

"Allensworth and Easton estimate that, even after controlling for the demographic characteristics and entering test scores of ninth-graders, the predicted probability of graduation was 55 percentage points higher (81 percent vs. 26 percent) for a student who was on-track vs. off-track at the end of ninth grade."

Roderick 2021 (2)¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Citing prior Consortium research, the report states that predicting ninth-grade course failure from eighth-grade test scores and family background "only explains 8 percent of the variation in failure rates across students," indicating ninth-grade failure is largely independent of prior achievement.

"if we try to predict ninth-grade course failures using students’ eighth-grade test scores and family background, research only explains 8 percent of the variation in failure rates across students."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• The first two semester course failures in ninth grade are associated with a 30 percentage point decrease in the probability of graduating — related
• Ninth-grade early warning systems around course grades and attendance led to substantial improvements in grades, graduation rates, and test-measured learning gains — related
• Ninth-graders who are on-track are 3.5 times more likely to graduate than those who are off-track — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• In the randomized Cohort 3 study, 9th-grade on-track NSI moderately improved attendance rates by 2 percentage points — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• Students who fail Algebra I more often enter ninth grade with preexisting math and reading deficits, though many enter with average or higher achievement — related
• Changes in student backgrounds and incoming achievement explain graduation improvements before 2006 but not after, because entering test scores stopped improving and declined — related
• Improvements in ninth-grade course performance—credits earned, pass rates, and attendance—account for most graduation improvements beyond student background changes — related
• Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Ninth-grade GPA predicts beginning-of-tenth-grade PLAN scores even after controlling for eighth-grade test scores, suggesting grades reflect new learning — related
• Ninth-grade on-track ELL students in Chicago were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students — related
• Escaping a bottom-tier school raises four-year graduation rates, by 10 percentage points for top-tier schools and 3 for mid-tier schools — related
• Displaced students' freshman on-track-to-graduate rates did not differ from comparison students, regardless of their grade at closing — related
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• On-track status predicts graduation better than eighth-grade test scores — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• The on-track–graduation relationship remains strong after accounting for student background characteristics — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Attendance and effort, more than test scores or demographics, drive course grades, GPA, course failure, graduation, and college readiness — related
• The report treats freshman on-track status as an early indicator correlated with later graduation and dropout — a broader claim this one bears on
• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers — related
• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers, with disproportionate impacts on Black and Latino students — related
• Attendance, behavior, and course performance (the ABC indicators) reliably predict which secondary students are at risk of dropping out — related
• The CRIS framework extends existing early warning systems beyond graduation and academic measures — related
• Freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicts about 80 percent of on-time high school graduates — related
• The Freshman OnTrack indicator is more predictive of graduation than eighth-grade test scores, SES, race/ethnicity, gender, and school mobility combined, and raising it raises graduation rates — related
• In a Chicago middle-grades study, the combination of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and adding test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status (at least five credits and no more than one semester F) makes students almost four times more likely to graduate — related
• The growth mindset intervention was estimated to prevent about 5.3% of US lower-achieving ninth-graders per year from being off track for graduation — related
• Brief online growth-mindset interventions produce modest academic gains concentrated among students at risk of underperformance — related
• On-track rates after ninth grade rose from 42.2 to 50.6 percent, with slightly less than half the adjusted improvement attributable to better-prepared entering students — related
• Schools vary widely in freshman on-track rates even among students with similar backgrounds — related
• Missing five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points — related
• ALAS increases the likelihood that high-risk students stay on track to graduate on time at the end of the intervention — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Bronxdale students outperformed comparison-group, borough, and city high schools on graduation rates and on-track credit indicators in 2017–18 — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Chicago's graduation-rate improvements have been credited to changed ninth-grade dropout-prevention practices triggered by on-track accountability and real-time data reports, and the review states accountability by itself was not sufficient — related