Improvements in ninth-grade course performance—credits earned, pass rates, and attendance—account for most graduation improvements beyond student background changes¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Students take more classes and earn more credits in ninth grade than in the past, and increases in ninth-grade credits, on-track status, and pass rates explain all graduation improvements not accounted for by backgrounds and incoming skills. → Allensworth 2016

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2016¶

Allensworth, E.M., Healey, K., Gwynne, J.A., & Crespin, R. (2016). High school graduation rates through two decades of district change: The influence of policies, data records, and demographic shifts. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://www.cps.edu/SchoolData/Pages/SchoolData.aspx

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Decomposition of graduation-rate trends against ninth-grade behavioral measures. Recent attendance improvements explain most of the on-track gains beyond incoming skills, and off-track students are now more likely to recover and graduate than in prior years.

"Increases in the number of credits earned in ninth grade, the proportion of students who are on-track in ninth grade, and the proportion of classes passed in ninth grade explain all of the improvements in graduation rates beyond those accounted for by changes in students' backgrounds and incoming skills."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Changes in student backgrounds and incoming achievement explain graduation improvements before 2006 but not after, because entering test scores stopped improving and declined — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
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• In the randomized Cohort 3 study, 9th-grade on-track NSI moderately improved attendance rates by 2 percentage points — related
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• Chicago's graduation-rate improvements have been credited to changed ninth-grade dropout-prevention practices triggered by on-track accountability and real-time data reports, and the review states accountability by itself was not sufficient — related
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