Model-derived prediction error at encoding interacts with prediction outcome in determining subsequent recognition memory¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causalr2·q3·i3large
Currency · newest study 2023 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Design limits · Francesco Pupillo 2023: no comparison group (read from the study by two models, 2026-10-26)
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i3 The effect of prediction error on memory encoding differs depending on whether the prediction was correct or incorrect (significant PE × prediction outcome interaction). → Francesco Pupillo 2023
Evidence¶
Francesco Pupillo 2023¶
Francesco Pupillo, Javier Ortiz-Tudela, Rasmus Bruckner and Yee Lee Shing. (2023). The effect of prediction error on episodic memory encoding is modulated by the outcome of the predictions. npj Science of Learning 8:18. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-023-00166-x
q3 · i3 · causal · r2
Generalized linear-mixed model on data collapsed across Experiments 1 and 2 (participants as random effects), relating model-derived PE, learning rate and prediction outcome to recognition. The interaction was significant: "χ2 ð1Þ = 26.14, p < 0.001", with OR = 6.47 in Table 2.
"Results showed that there was a significant interaction between PE and prediction outcome, χ2 ð1Þ = 26.14, p < 0.001, while the main effects of prediction outcome, learning rate, and the interaction between prediction outcome and learning rate, were not significant, ps > 0.316."
Discussion¶
Learner Variables¶
- Long-Term Memory — outcome: instruction changes it
Related Claims¶
- Recognition performance was worse overall in Experiment 2 than Experiment 1, with no moderation of the effects of interest — related
- Estimated individual learning rates did not affect overall recognition memory or moderate the prediction-error effects — related
- The overall main effect of prediction error on recognition memory, independent of prediction outcome, is not significant — related
- For correct predictions, stronger prediction errors during encoding lead to enhanced recognition memory — related
- For incorrect predictions, stronger prediction errors during encoding lead to impaired recognition memory — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
- Choice-outcome-incorporated (signed) prediction error shows a positive relationship with recognition memory — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
pe-outcome-interaction-episodic-memory |
title |
Model-derived prediction error at encoding interacts with prediction outcome in determining subsequent recognition memory |
description |
Model-derived prediction error at encoding interacts with prediction outcome in determining subsequent recognition memory |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2023 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-26 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — francesco-pupillo-2023 |
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