School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide at most a small amount of information for predicting principals' future contributions to student achievement¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2019: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Measures that account for students' past achievement (school value-added and adjusted school value-added) provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions to student achievement in the following year. → Hanley Chiang 2016
Evidence¶
Hanley Chiang 2016¶
Hanley Chiang, Moira McCullough, Stephen Lipscomb, Brian Gill. (2016). Can Student Test Scores Provide Useful Measures of School Principals' Performance? Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED570000
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Key finding from the report's simulation of predictive accuracy using Pennsylvania statewide data (2007/08 to 2013/14). The report states these past-achievement-adjusted measures provide "at most, a small amount of information" about principals' future contributions.
"School value-added and adjusted school value-added—the measures that account for students’ past achievement—provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals’ contributions in the following year."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Average achievement and adjusted average achievement measures provide no information for predicting principals' contributions to student achievement in the following year — related
- School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions in the following year — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
- The study used two sets of analyses—rating stability and the stable component's link to future contributions—to simulate each measure's predictive accuracy — related
- Averaging principal performance measures across multiple recent years does not improve their accuracy for predicting principals' contributions in the following year — related
- School value added provides very poor information for revealing principals' persistent levels of effectiveness — related
- Value-added estimates are likely to be noisy with the amount of data typically used in practice — related
- School median student growth percentiles were stable year to year even when the school changed principals — related
- Principals are essential to student achievement, with principals' effects almost as large as teachers' effects — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
school-value-added-small-predictive-information-principals |
title |
School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide at most a small amount of information for predicting principals' future contributions to student achievement |
description |
School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide at most a small amount of information for predicting principals' future contributions to student achievement |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2016 |
recheck_by |
2019 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — hanley-chiang-2016 |
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