School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions in the following year¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · checked against its sources 2026-10-08 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2019: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Measures that account for students' past achievement (school value-added and adjusted school value-added) provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions to student achievement in the following year. → Hanley Chiang 2016
Evidence¶
Hanley Chiang 2016¶
Hanley Chiang, Moira McCullough, Stephen Lipscomb, Brian Gill. (2016). Performance Measures Based on Test Scores – How Well Do They Predict Principals' Impacts? (In Focus Brief). Cambridge, MA: Mathematica Policy Research. https://www.mathematica.org/publications/performance-measures-based-on-test-scores-issue-brief
q2 · i? · associational · r2
The brief reports that the two measures accounting for students' past achievement "provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions in the following year," based on the Pennsylvania statewide study of students and principals.
"School value-added and adjusted school value-added—the measures that account for students' past achievement—provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions in the following year."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Average achievement and adjusted average achievement provide no information for predicting principals' contributions to student achievement in the following year — related
- Averaging principal performance measures across multiple recent years does not improve their accuracy for predicting principals' contributions in the following year — related
- The study used two sets of analyses—rating stability and the stable component's link to future contributions—to simulate each measure's predictive accuracy — related
- School median student growth percentiles were stable year to year even when the school changed principals — related
- School value added provides very poor information for revealing principals' persistent levels of effectiveness — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
- Principals are essential to student achievement, with principals' effects almost as large as teachers' effects — related
- School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide at most a small amount of information for predicting principals' future contributions to student achievement — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
- Value-added estimates are likely to be noisy with the amount of data typically used in practice — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
value-added-measures-small-predictive-info-principal-impacts |
title |
School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions in the following year |
description |
School value-added and adjusted school value-added provide, at most, a small amount of information for predicting principals' contributions in the following year |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2016 |
source_checked |
2026-10-08 |
recheck_by |
2019 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — hanley-chiang-2016 |
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